The Role of High Water Temperature in the Context of Low-Flow Risk Analysis

Abstract

Low-flow events significantly impact water users and ecosystems due to reduced flow rates and deteriorating water quality. Elevated water temperatures during these periods have led to economic and ecological consequences. Therefore, water temperature is a key aspect in the context of low-flow risk analysis, and it is essential to model it accurately. This study introduces a one-dimensional water temperature model optimized for integration into low-flow risk analysis frameworks. Results demonstrate good performance in simulating water temperatures for both rivers, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.85–0.98 and root mean square errors of 0.96–1.96 K. The model was evaluated on two contrasting river systems: the small Selke River and the large Elbe River. The model effectively captures anthropogenic influences and altered environmental conditions. Key factors influencing water temperature varied by river size, with tributaries and shading having more impact on smaller rivers, while air temperature was the primary driver for larger rivers. The model’s computational efficiency enables the practical implementation of long-term risk assessments. This temperature model fulfills the requirements for integration into low-flow risk management frameworks, providing a valuable tool for assessing temperature-related impacts and evaluating mitigation strategies across diverse river systems.